The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: conflicts

In the second post, I briefly explained Egypt’s reliance on the Nile, as well as some of the worries concerning its historical right to the Nile being contested. In this post, I will delve deeper into these worries in the context of the GERD and look at the potential conflicts that may arise. I will also look at how Egypt has responded to the looming threat of a reduction in its share of the Nile’s water because of the GERD.

Egypt and Sudan's joint military drill 

While there has been no direct armed conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD, Egypt has shown it would be prepared if a direct confrontation ever took place. In April 2021, Egypt and Sudan conducted a joint aerial military exercise, whilst in the middle of tensions with Ethiopia over the dam (Sabry, 2021). In addition, Egypt has, on multiple occasions, objected to Ethiopia’s unilateral filling of the GERD without a deal with them and Sudan, going as far as writing an official complaint to the UN Security Council, registering “its objections and complete rejection of Ethiopia’s continuation of filling the Renaissance Dam unilaterally without a deal.” (TRT World, 2022). In its complaint, Egypt highlighted the fact that the actions of Ethiopia represented a clear violation of the Declaration of Principles Agreement of 2015, as well as international law, which forces Ethiopia to avoid harming the water rights of downstream nations (Egypt Today staff, 2022). The Security Council has called on the three countries to resume their negotiations under the supervision of the African Union (Saied, 2022). However, these further negotiations haven’t helped to make progress on the issue.

Another source of tension regarding the GERD is the time it takes to fill the reservoir. Egypt initially proposed a gradual filling of the dam over a period of 20 years, as a longer process would cause less disruption to water flows (Cooke, 2018). Ethiopia plans to do it in 6 years (Mutahi, 2020), so it can start producing and selling electricity to other countries.

The President of Egypt, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, has also warned Ethiopia that his government would not accept any actions that would diminish Egypt’s share of the Nile waters, stating that “all options are open” if the GERD alters Egypt’s share (Al Jazeera, 2021). This could potentially mean that Egypt would be ready to act militarily in order to defend its interests. This could potentially mean that Egypt would be ready to act militarily in order to defend its interests. The possibility of using military force has been a recurring subject in Egyptian politics since the GERD began construction. The late President Morsi discussed the possibility of using Egypt’s military in 2013, while President El-Sisi insisted that the Egyptian military should always be combat ready in the light of the tensions caused by the GERD (IFIMES, 2020).

While there hasn’t been any armed confrontation as of yet, the continuous tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt (and also Sudan), coupled with the failure to reach a deal despite years of negotiation, indicates that the potential for a “water war” is still very much present.